An African Spring?

Earlier this week I read an article on The Atlantic called, "In New Sub-Saharan Leader, Hints of an African Spring." I'd been following the Zambian election, see last week's blog post, and when I saw the headline it peaked my interest since we had just mentioned the Arab spring in class and the importance of social media in driving that event. This part, in particular, stuck with me:

"There are plenty of entrenched presidents in sub-Saharan Africa that could give good impersonations of recently deposed Arab dictators. Zimbabawe's Robert Mugabe is surely a match for Libya's Qaddafi in terms of stubborn self-destruction and bizarre narcissism. Cameroon's Paul Biya, who has so rarely actually governed during his 30 years in power that he sports the nickname "the ghost of Africa," could give Mubarak a decent competition in the realm of complacency and corruption...And yet none of these African autocrats seem threatened by dissent in their own countries."

The relation of the African dictators to those overthrown in the Arab Spring isn't terribly far-fetched and it's an interesting comparison to help readers less knowledgeable about African politics or who may not have heard of Mugabe or Biya.

The issue of Zambia and their election, and especially the case of the new President Michael Sata, is an example of one of the trends that Sinclair talks about in his article. Feelings of nationalism were essential to this election, Sata ran on the campaign of regulating Chinese mines and largely on his popularity and pragmatism. As the article states, "There's something else of Sata's populism that has echoes in the Arab Spring. "Don't kubeba," a phrase taken from a popular song that literally means "don't tell them," became Sata's signature phrase." Nationalism and a focus on the Zambian culture, regulating of foreign investors in the country and protecting the Zambian workers played a huge role in his campaign.

It also is an example of another trend Sinclair describes, the growth of an organization challenging the nation-state, and successfully. It was a clean switch-over of power from the incumbent party to a new ruling party. And, as of now, it seems as if it will continue to go smoothly. Former president Rupiah Banda, who lost his reelection bid, attended the inauguration of Sata and said in interviews he looked forward to his upcoming downtime.

The end of the article, however, makes one of the most important points:

"The Zambian election, for all its signals of a potentially new era in African politics, is also a reminder of one of the most serious challenges to politics there. A true African (political) spring will be unlikely to occur until a younger generation of leaders emerge with real power, at least in civil society if not in electoral politics, closing black Africa's generation gap and making men and women like Sata less of an exception and more of a norm."